Peebles financial claims questionable

After only 5 months, Peebles' posted his financial analysis. It assumes:

  • an average sales price of $2.3 million per housing unit
  • an average assessed value for each hotel suite of $880,000
  • an average suite room rate of $595/night

Even with those inflated numbers, he still has to include $500,000 in sales tax (which at the charrette he said he couldn't estimate) and $100,000 in business improvement district fees in order to reach the promised $17 million. (Actually, $16.7 million.)

In is very unlikely that these assumptions will actually come to pass.  In particular, the analysis assumes an 11% annual housing price appreciation over the next 7 years.  This was based on the red-hot appreciation over the past 10 years, but recent headlines have documented that the housing market is cooling in the Bay Area.